NYI beat NJD 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 2.8, NJD 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kieffer Bellows scored at 5:10 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 48% to 76%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:37 | NJD | Pavel Zacha from Ty Smith, Kyle Palmieri | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 17:58 | NYI | Oliver Wahlstrom unassisted | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:04 | NJD | Janne Kuokkanen from Yegor Sharangovich, Travis Zajac | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 1:59 | NYI | Kieffer Bellows from Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 5:10 | NYI | Kieffer Bellows from Jordan Eberle | 3–2 | 48% → 76% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieffer Bellows L | 14:52 | 2 | +1.67 | +0.22 | +1.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 11:54 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.05 | +0.44 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:27 | +0.25 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 20:23 | +0.18 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:25 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.29 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 15:32 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.54 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 11:48 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Dal Colle L | 5:56 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 14:14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:56 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:47 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:55 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 18:26 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 17:34 | −0.27 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 21:36 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:34 | 2 | −0.44 | +0.30 | −0.76 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 16:18 | −0.44 | −0.31 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:23 | −0.70 | −0.33 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 60:00 | +0.73 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 16:41 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.12 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:20 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.09 | +0.48 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Travis Zajac C | 18:58 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Miles Wood L | 15:14 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 16:49 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 14:02 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Smith D | 20:05 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sami Vatanen D | 16:34 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 22:10 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 13:24 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 9:19 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 12:20 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 15:13 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 21:56 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Maltsev L | 9:09 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 21:22 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 14:42 | −0.49 | −0.11 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 19:29 | 1 | −0.62 | +0.07 | −0.66 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 58:13 | +0.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.