VGK beat STL 5–4 in overtime. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Reilly Smith scored on the power play at 2:38 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:48 | VGK | Mark Stone from Chandler Stephenson, Max Pacioretty | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:29 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Reilly Smith | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 5:14 | STL | Ryan O'Reilly from Justin Faulk, Zachary Sanford | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 10:12 | VGK | Tomas Nosek from Dylan Coghlan, Nicolas Roy | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 13:36 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Sammy Blais, Robert Bortuzzo | 3–2 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 4:53 | STL | Zachary SanfordPP from Mike Hoffman, Jordan Kyrou | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 10:40 | STL | David PerronPP from Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko | 3–4 | 53% → 84% |
| P3 11:27 | VGK | Alec Martinez from Tomas Nosek, Shea Theodore | 4–4 | 16% → 48% |
| OT 2:38 | VGK | Reilly SmithPP from Jonathan Marchessault, Alec Martinez | 5–4 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reilly Smith R | 19:56 | 1 | 1 | +1.50 | +0.55 | +0.75 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Alec Martinez D | 22:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.37 | +0.73 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Tomas Nosek L | 13:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.17 | +0.53 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.67 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nicolas Roy C | 13:51 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 18:36 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.13 | +0.43 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 23:51 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.39 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 15:43 | +0.18 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:57 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 15:23 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 21:02 | −0.00 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 18:07 | −0.08 | +0.45 | −0.54 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 18:28 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Glass C | 13:10 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 21:15 | −0.10 | +0.34 | −0.40 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 17:20 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 7:51 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 18:45 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.13 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 61:52 | −1.75 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Sanford L | 17:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.13 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 20:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.23 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Niko Mikkola D | 15:27 | +0.21 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 17:18 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.23 | +0.38 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:40 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.39 | +0.59 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.06 | |
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 8:56 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 8:24 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 10:13 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 11:47 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 24:25 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 19:20 | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 22:01 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.07 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 11:47 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 15:20 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 16:16 | −0.43 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 16:00 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 21:26 | −0.59 | −0.38 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 24:20 | −0.75 | −0.54 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 62:20 | −0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.