MIN beat VGK 4–3. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kirill Kaprizov scored on the power play at 1:18 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 53% to 78%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:19 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 1:42 | VGK | Dylan Coghlan from Nicolas Roy | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P3 1:18 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Mats Zuccarello, Nick Bjugstad | 1–2 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 5:54 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Jordan Greenway, Marcus Foligno | 1–3 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 7:41 | MIN | Carson Soucy from Nico Sturm, Kyle Rau | 1–4 | 95% → 99% |
| P3 14:00 | VGK | Dylan Coghlan from Alec Martinez, Chandler Stephenson | 2–4 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 17:50 | VGK | Dylan CoghlanPP from Shea Theodore, Mark Stone | 3–4 | 0% → 7% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Coghlan D | 18:23 | 3 | +2.49 | +0.01 | +2.50 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 17:22 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:09 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 18:48 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 17:41 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 19:43 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 9:34 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 9:14 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 23:00 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 16:07 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 18:21 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:32 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 17:18 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:18 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 19:11 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 14:26 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 19:53 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 21:13 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.34 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 8:15 | +0.03 |
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 48:21 | −0.66 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 16:54 | 2 | +1.55 | +0.08 | +1.42 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 13:52 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.04 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 17:23 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.21 | +0.25 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:58 | +0.25 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 23:14 | +0.20 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 23:17 | +0.17 | +0.22 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 14:38 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.19 | −0.28 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Victor Rask C | 15:27 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 14:01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 12:52 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 24:14 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 17:52 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 17:36 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 12:14 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 12:50 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:23 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.20 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Parise L | 13:52 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Rau C | 7:57 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.06 | −0.60 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 59:26 | −0.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.