VAN beat MTL 2–1 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.8, VAN 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Adam Gaudette scored on the power play at 19:19 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 5% to 51%. Thatcher Demko saved 3.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:37 | MTL | Jeff PetryPP from Tomas Tatar, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P3 19:19 |  VAN | Adam GaudettePP from Bo Horvat, Quinn Hughes | 1–1 | 5% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Petry D | 26:04 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.24 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Weber D | 22:45 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 21:56 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 21:01 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 14:02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 9:21 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 13:44 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:44 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 16:28 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 14:12 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:25 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Corey Perry R | 10:27 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 12:28 | −0.37 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:16 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 16:52 | −0.48 | +0.13 | −0.60 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:30 | −0.56 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.32 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 18:43 | −0.65 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.38 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 19:10 | −0.75 | −0.15 | −0.59 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 64:52 | +1.85 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Gaudette R | 13:29 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.08 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 23:36 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.01 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 30:21 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.37 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Edler D | 21:29 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Michaelis L | 7:59 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 14:29 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 12:28 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 10:58 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 12:14 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 14:38 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 25:18 | −0.11 | +0.37 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.38 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 16:41 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 24:57 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 7:34 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 13:49 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 22:33 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 16:51 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 22:50 | −0.52 | +0.29 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 64:20 | +3.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.