VGK beat SJS 5–4 in overtime. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Max Pacioretty scored at 1:25 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Martin Jones allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:48 | VGK | Reilly Smith from William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:03 | VGK | Chandler Stephenson from Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P2 2:57 | VGK | Max Pacioretty from Alec Martinez, Ryan Reaves | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 6:01 | SJS | Brent BurnsPP from Ryan Donato, Timo Meier | 3–1 | 6% → 18% |
| P2 12:43 | SJS | Matt Nieto from Erik Karlsson | 3–2 | 14% → 31% |
| P3 0:26 | VGK | Alex Tuch from William Carrier | 4–2 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 6:23 | SJS | Logan Couture from Erik Karlsson, Evander Kane | 4–3 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 18:53 | SJS | Kevin Labanc unassisted | 4–4 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 1:25 | VGK | Max Pacioretty from Alex Pietrangelo, Mark Stone | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Pacioretty L | 18:58 | 2 | 1 | +1.57 | −0.07 | +1.47 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 |
| Alex Tuch R | 15:09 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.02 | +0.90 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.13 | +0.66 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 19:29 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.33 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 16:13 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 14:49 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 15:41 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:48 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:43 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 14:31 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 26:34 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 19:04 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 9:40 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:04 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 20:32 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 18:03 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:41 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 21:24 | −0.45 | −0.19 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Oscar Dansk G | 61:25 | −0.71 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 26:33 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.04 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 17:05 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.25 | +0.66 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 13:40 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.03 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 21:11 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.10 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:26 | 2 | +0.57 | +0.40 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 13:34 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kellman C | 10:29 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:24 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 23:12 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 15:08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 13:43 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 17:51 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 18:40 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 14:15 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.22 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kurtis Gabriel R | 6:13 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 15:59 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Leonard L | 11:19 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 14:21 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 38:21 | −0.96 |
| Martin Jones G | 22:16 | −2.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.