STL beat ANA 5–4. STL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: David Perron scored at 6:35 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 47% to 67%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:04 | ANA | Isac Lundeström from Maxime Comtois, Cam Fowler | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 19:03 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Ryan O'Reilly, Zachary Sanford | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 6:35 | STL | David Perron from Brayden Schenn | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 12:45 | STL | Zachary SanfordPP from Vince Dunn, Justin Faulk | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 12:58 | STL | Dakota Joshua from Kyle Clifford, Marco Scandella | 4–1 | 86% → 96% |
| P3 0:34 | ANA | Isac Lundeström from Rickard Rakell | 4–2 | 2% → 10% |
| P3 15:16 | ANA | Isac Lundeström from Kevin Shattenkirk, Rickard Rakell | 4–3 | 1% → 13% |
| P3 18:40 | STL | Zachary SanfordEN from Justin Faulk | 5–3 | 93% → 100% |
| P3 19:00 | ANA | Ryan GetzlafPP from Jakob Silfverberg, Max Jones | 5–4 | 0% → 5% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Joshua C | 7:15 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.06 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 13:13 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.05 | +0.78 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 19:44 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 19:15 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.16 | +0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 15:42 | 2 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.07 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Mike Hoffman C | 12:00 | +0.16 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 21:19 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:30 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 21:51 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 10:39 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:29 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 14:06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 23:19 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Clifford L | 11:34 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 23:32 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 9:07 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 19:45 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 15:51 | −0.50 | +0.14 | −0.62 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 59:24 | −0.99 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isac Lundeström C | 14:11 | 3 | +2.21 | −0.02 | +2.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 19:19 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.66 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 24:26 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 9:34 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 15:18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 12:10 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Jones L | 11:56 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Grant C | 14:27 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 17:40 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 16:19 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 22:46 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.11 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 17:24 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxime Comtois L | 14:08 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.10 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 16:19 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:32 | 2 | −0.41 | −0.03 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 17:40 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 17:26 | −0.43 | −0.20 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:40 | −0.48 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 57:40 | −0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.