STL beat SJS 7–6. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Marco Scandella scored at 7:14 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Devan Dubnyk allowed 4.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:17 | SJS | Timo Meier from Rudolfs Balcers, Dylan Gambrell | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:08 | STL | Marco Scandella unassisted | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 10:11 | SJS | Evander KanePP from Logan Couture, Brent Burns | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 3:34 | STL | Sammy Blais from Vince Dunn, Ryan O'Reilly | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:43 | SJS | Timo MeierPP from Kevin Labanc | 2–3 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 7:28 | STL | Brayden Schenn from David Perron | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 10:34 | SJS | Evander Kane unassisted | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 18:16 | STL | Zachary Sanford from Jordan Kyrou, Torey Krug | 4–4 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 1:18 | STL | Mackenzie MacEachernSH from Zachary Sanford, Marco Scandella | 5–4 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 2:13 | SJS | Kevin Labanc from John Leonard, Timo Meier | 5–5 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 3:20 | STL | Ryan O'Reilly from Justin Faulk | 6–5 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 6:31 | SJS | Logan Couture from Brent Burns, Mario Ferraro | 6–6 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 7:14 | STL | Marco Scandella from Oskar Sundqvist, Mike Hoffman | 7–6 | 48% → 77% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Scandella D | 25:28 | 2 | 1 | +1.69 | +0.01 | +1.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 7:38 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 13:27 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.08 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 21:08 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.26 | +0.84 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.15 | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.12 |
| Zachary Sanford L | 15:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.15 | +0.55 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Torey Krug D | 20:06 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 12:13 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.24 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 17:52 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob de la Rose L | 1:16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 13:48 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Clifford L | 6:51 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 15:02 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 21:08 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 15:01 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 16:27 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 18:00 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 25:49 | 1 | −0.68 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 29:26 | +0.26 |
| Jordan Binnington G | 30:34 | −2.25 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evander Kane L | 23:09 | 2 | +1.66 | +0.32 | +1.32 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Timo Meier R | 18:28 | 2 | 1 | +1.60 | +0.02 | +1.60 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Logan Couture C | 21:45 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.25 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.05 |
| Kevin Labanc R | 16:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.09 | +0.58 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brent Burns D | 27:21 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.39 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Leonard L | 13:21 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 20:52 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 19:39 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 8:11 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 14:51 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 13:17 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 17:16 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 7:41 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 17:04 | −0.27 | +0.48 | −0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sasha Chmelevski C | 6:08 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 14:37 | −0.37 | +0.18 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 18:55 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.04 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 59:11 | −4.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.