MIN beat LAK 4–3 in overtime. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mathew Dumba scored at 4:59 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Kaapo Kahkonen allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:17 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Kevin Fiala, Jordan Greenway | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 17:25 | MIN | Nico Sturm from Nick Bjugstad, Mathew Dumba | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 1:22 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Victor Rask, Ryan Suter | 0–3 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 2:51 | LAK | Drew DoughtyPP from Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar | 1–3 | 6% → 14% |
| P2 11:41 | LAK | Austin Wagner unassisted | 2–3 | 11% → 26% |
| P3 17:15 | LAK | Adrian KempePP from Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar | 3–3 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 4:59 | MIN | Mathew Dumba from Mats Zuccarello, Jordan Greenway | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Kempe R | 16:43 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.03 | +0.63 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 |
| Austin Wagner L | 11:00 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.03 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 30:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.31 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikey Anderson D | 25:09 | +0.18 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 12:05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 12:59 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 11:22 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 17:21 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 17:54 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 12:00 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 20:01 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 18:08 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 16:30 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 17:40 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 19:15 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 23:40 | 2 | −0.32 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 14:00 | −0.45 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 15:29 | −0.83 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Petersen G | 64:23 | +0.48 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Sturm C | 10:54 | 1 | +1.14 | +0.17 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 27:39 | 1 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.40 | +0.68 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 19:37 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.32 | +0.33 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 16:51 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.07 | +0.48 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 18:57 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.18 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:27 | +0.10 | +0.25 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:27 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 15:11 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 19:28 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.18 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 11:58 | +0.05 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:16 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.24 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 13:09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 15:47 | −0.09 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 9:00 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 17:59 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.22 | −0.40 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:02 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:52 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.12 | −0.46 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Parise L | 18:12 | −0.82 | +0.04 | −0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 64:33 | −1.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.