WPG beat VAN 4–3 in overtime. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Pierre-Luc Dubois scored at 0:27 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:38 | VAN | Brandon Sutter from Jordie Benn | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:40 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 14:37 |  WPG | Pierre-Luc Dubois from Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele | 1–2 | 10% → 25% |
| P3 5:43 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Blake Wheeler | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 10:33 | WPG | Neal PionkPP from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nikolaj Ehlers | 3–2 | 50% → 81% |
| P3 19:22 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller | 3–3 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 0:27 | WPG | Pierre-Luc Dubois from Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 16:48 | 2 | 1 | +1.60 | −0.03 | +1.45 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Mark Scheifele C | 20:07 | 1 | 2 | +0.72 | +0.04 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Neal Pionk D | 20:21 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.02 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:09 | +0.10 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tucker Poolman D | 14:00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 4:54 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 17:47 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 6:22 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 19:13 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:48 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 14:00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 7:41 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 18:07 | 3 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:54 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 17:33 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 18:33 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:06 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 19:23 | −0.60 | +0.10 | −0.68 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:27 | −0.31 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:27 | 2 | +1.57 | −0.03 | +1.55 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Sutter C | 14:10 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.06 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 18:38 | +0.13 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 6:09 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 14:51 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 10:43 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 21:12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Juolevi D | 13:27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 13:28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 6:09 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 20:43 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 23:53 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 24:34 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 22:14 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.06 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 9:46 | −0.47 | +0.04 | −0.49 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 21:20 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.04 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 16:45 | −0.65 | −0.04 | −0.45 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 58:30 | −0.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.