CHI beat CAR 2–1 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CHI 3.9, CAR 4.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex DeBrincat scored at 2:02 of overtime, moving CHI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Collin Delia saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:49 |  CAR | Martin NecasSH from Jani Hakanpää | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P3 16:59 | CHI | Riley Stillman from Pius Suter | 1–1 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 2:02 | CHI | Alex DeBrincat from Dominik Kubalik, Wyatt Kalynuk | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Stillman D | 24:26 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.22 | +0.58 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 19:31 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.69 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 26:14 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kalynuk D | 23:04 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 14:26 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 8:18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 5:37 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 26:14 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hardman L | 12:00 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 13:21 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 13:50 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 19:39 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alec Regula D | 14:16 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 11:04 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| David Kampf C | 16:45 | −0.31 | +0.10 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 17:13 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.12 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 16:02 | −0.47 | +0.13 | −0.59 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 22:06 | −0.47 | −0.22 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Delia G | 62:02 | +2.44 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas C | 18:15 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.13 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 10:07 | +0.10 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 10:16 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 25:05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 12:29 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 12:58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 15:44 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 21:27 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max McCormick L | 10:04 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 13:40 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:45 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 23:33 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:21 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 19:54 | −0.33 | +0.12 | −0.46 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:03 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:18 | −0.38 | +0.14 | −0.49 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 16:05 | −0.38 | −0.27 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:02 | −0.55 | +0.05 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 62:02 | +1.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.