CAR beat CHI 5–3. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 3.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Martin Necas scored on the power play at 2:28 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 78%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:22 |  CAR | Nino Niederreiter from Jaccob Slavin | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 4:03 | CAR | Vincent Trocheck from Jake Bean, Nino Niederreiter | 0–2 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 16:39 |  CHI | Patrick Kane from Alex DeBrincat | 1–2 | 9% → 24% |
| P2 19:49 | CHI | Ian MitchellPP from David Kampf, Patrick Kane | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 2:28 | CAR | Martin NecasPP from Jake Gardiner, Teuvo Teravainen | 2–3 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 15:04 | CAR | Nino NiederreiterPP from Jesper Fast, Martin Necas | 2–4 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 16:46 | CAR | Jaccob SlavinEN from Teuvo Teravainen | 2–5 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 19:09 | CHI | Carl SoderbergPP from Patrick Kane, Adam Boqvist | 3–5 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Soderberg C | 14:02 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.11 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 24:18 | 1 | 2 | +0.57 | −0.13 | +0.67 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ian Mitchell D | 17:49 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.09 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 18:26 | +0.12 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 12:19 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Beaudin D | 9:14 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 14:49 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 12:20 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Lucas Carlsson D | 13:04 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 17:32 | −0.19 | +0.16 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 16:48 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 24:33 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 15:20 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 15:09 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 12:44 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Kampf C | 15:53 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.50 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 21:24 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.17 | −0.42 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Pius Suter C | 20:11 | −0.56 | −0.12 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 58:23 | +0.18 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nino Niederreiter R | 13:44 | 2 | 1 | +1.60 | +0.06 | +1.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 18:28 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 20:55 | +0.41 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 15:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.06 | +0.26 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Jake Gardiner D | 12:19 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 12:56 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 25:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jesper Fast R | 13:09 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cedric Paquette C | 10:26 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 16:48 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.23 | −0.33 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 14:57 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:12 | −0.13 | +0.20 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:55 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 16:27 | −0.19 | +0.10 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 18:37 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 11:20 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 25:52 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.54 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 14:36 | −0.60 | −0.04 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:00 | +0.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.