STL beat SJS 3–2 in overtime. STL also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: David Perron scored on the power play at 4:00 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Martin Jones saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:12 |  STL | Mike HoffmanPP from Oskar Sundqvist, David Perron | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 8:27 | SJS | Noah Gregor from Nicolas Meloche, Dylan Gambrell | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 14:31 | SJS | John Leonard from Ryan Donato, Patrick Marleau | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 19:20 | STL | Brayden SchennPP from Mike Hoffman, David Perron | 2–2 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 4:00 | STL | David PerronPP from Torey Krug, Jordan Binnington | 2–3 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Gregor L | 10:41 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.07 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Leonard L | 16:03 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:44 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Meloche D | 10:58 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fredrik Claesson D | 12:35 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 22:10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 14:52 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 21:20 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 13:16 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 11:50 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 15:50 | −0.30 | −0.18 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 12:43 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 27:04 | −0.39 | −0.33 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 19:08 | −0.46 | −0.18 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 16:39 | −0.51 | −0.21 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 16:58 | −0.52 | +0.08 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 15:15 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 28:42 | −1.07 | −0.43 | −0.51 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 64:00 | +1.55 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Perron L | 21:44 | 1 | 2 | +1.26 | +0.51 | +0.55 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Mike Hoffman C | 19:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.29 | +0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:20 | +0.44 | +0.59 | −0.40 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.05 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 22:39 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.06 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 26:24 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 27:58 | +0.10 | +0.28 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 16:35 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 13:47 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 16:32 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:23 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jacob de la Rose L | 9:07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 17:11 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 9:58 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 16:07 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 11:55 | −0.31 | +0.09 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 8:03 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 20:28 | −0.33 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 14:21 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 62:34 | +0.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.