NSH beat DAL 4–3 in a shootout. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Eeli Tolvanen scored at 14:15 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 13% to 49%. Anton Khudobin allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:02 | DAL | Rhett Gardner from Esa Lindell, Tanner Kero | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 10:21 | DAL | Radek Faksa from Jason Robertson, Jamie Oleksiak | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 10:51 | NSH | Ryan JohansenPP from Mattias Ekholm, Eeli Tolvanen | 1–2 | 17% → 30% |
| P2 13:02 | DAL | Ty Dellandrea from Joe Pavelski, John Klingberg | 1–3 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 17:54 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Ryan Johansen, Eeli Tolvanen | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 14:15 | NSH | Eeli Tolvanen from Ben Harpur | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Johansen C | 20:29 | 1 | 1 | +1.46 | −0.07 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.79 |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 18:03 | +0.72 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.01 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:59 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.25 | +0.85 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 17:36 | 1 | 2 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.92 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 13:18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Davies D | 13:31 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 11:42 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 13:54 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 21:40 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 26:13 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 17:48 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 28:13 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Harpur D | 19:09 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 19:18 | −0.38 | −0.15 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:43 | −0.43 | −0.02 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 9:48 | −0.58 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 12:00 | −0.71 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 65:00 | +0.82 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radek Faksa C | 10:10 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 20:36 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.69 | |
| Rhett Gardner C | 10:00 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 16:13 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.11 | +0.66 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.38 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 21:45 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 19:36 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 22:02 | +0.07 | +0.15 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Comeau L | 16:32 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 14:26 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Kero C | 9:08 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 15:29 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 23:20 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrej Sekera D | 14:33 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:07 | −0.14 | +0.21 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 8:22 | −0.33 | −0.04 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 18:25 | −0.47 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 22:09 | 1 | −0.60 | +0.09 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| John Klingberg D | 23:56 | 1 | −0.76 | +0.06 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Khudobin G | 65:00 | −1.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.