OTT beat TOR 6–5 in overtime. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Evgenii Dadonov scored at 2:19 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Frederik Andersen allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:32 |  TOR | Auston Matthews from Joe Thornton, Mitch Marner | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 10:29 | TOR | Travis Boyd from Jason Spezza | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 12:40 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Tim Stützle | 1–2 | 16% → 30% |
| P2 1:49 | TOR | Pierre Engvall from Alexander Kerfoot, TJ Brodie | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 9:51 | TOR | Joe Thornton from Auston Matthews | 1–4 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 19:01 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Morgan Rielly, John Tavares | 1–5 | 99% → 100% |
| P2 19:51 | OTT | Nick PaulSH from Austin Watson | 2–5 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 0:41 | OTT | Artem Zub from Chris Tierney, Connor Brown | 3–5 | 1% → 8% |
| P3 5:52 | OTT | Connor Brown from Colin White, Thomas Chabot | 4–5 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 17:59 | OTT | Evgenii DadonovPP from Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris | 5–5 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 2:19 | OTT | Evgenii Dadonov from Thomas Chabot, Nick Paul | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 17:46 | 2 | +1.51 | +0.10 | +1.41 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 14:44 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.13 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 18:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.03 | +0.68 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Artem Zub D | 12:14 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.03 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 18:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.01 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Thomas Chabot D | 27:58 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 16:41 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 18:15 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Wolanin D | 15:46 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 16:25 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Derek Stepan C | 18:31 | −0.15 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 8:43 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 19:41 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 22:42 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Anisimov C | 8:48 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 19:47 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 12:37 | 1 | −0.63 | −0.29 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:44 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.10 | −0.56 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 61:47 | −0.71 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 22:24 | 2 | 1 | +1.48 | +0.18 | +1.24 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Pierre Engvall L | 9:07 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.04 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joe Thornton C | 16:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.78 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Travis Boyd C | 10:55 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.04 | +0.59 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 25:11 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.51 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:24 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 10:54 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.31 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Holl D | 23:55 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 11:57 | −0.11 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 23:51 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.25 | −0.45 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 12:50 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 21:08 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:29 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.16 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 11:25 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Travis Dermott D | 11:57 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 16:54 | −0.30 | +0.13 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 12:45 | −0.41 | −0.18 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 16:43 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 61:46 | −2.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.