CHI beat DET 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CHI 2.1, DET 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dominik Kubalik scored at 4:43 of overtime, moving CHI’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:19 | CHI | Mattias Janmark from Carl Soderberg, Nikita Zadorov | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:09 | CHI | Dominik Kubalik from Brandon Hagel | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P1 19:45 | DET | Vladislav Namestnikov from Patrik Nemeth, Sam Gagner | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P3 5:49 | DET | Christian Djoos from Frans Nielsen, Adam Erne | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 4:43 | CHI | Dominik Kubalik from Pius Suter, Nicolas Beaudin | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Kubalik L | 15:49 | 2 | +1.49 | +0.01 | +1.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 16:54 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.17 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 20:46 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 14:45 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Kampf C | 15:07 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 19:35 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 20:01 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 7:21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Wallmark C | 11:13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Carlsson D | 15:32 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 13:13 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Duncan Keith D | 23:33 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Beaudin D | 19:00 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 23:21 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 18:26 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Pius Suter C | 17:19 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 14:40 | −0.56 | −0.09 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 23:34 | −0.63 | −0.24 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Subban G | 64:43 | −0.21 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Djoos D | 17:26 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.06 | +0.87 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:26 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.03 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mathias Brome L | 18:12 | +0.24 | +0.17 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 17:16 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:06 | +0.11 | +0.06 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 18:21 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 12:00 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Frans Nielsen C | 13:09 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 13:32 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 9:39 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 25:57 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 15:13 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 17:56 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 20:30 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 13:06 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 20:00 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 21:00 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.14 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:04 | −0.47 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 64:43 | −0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.