NJD beat BOS 1–0. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kyle Palmieri scored at 15:23 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 49% to 87%. Scott Wedgewood saved 3.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 15:23 |  NJD | Kyle Palmieri from Pavel Zacha, P.K. Subban | 1–0 | 49% → 87% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:57 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.06 | +0.37 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 14:12 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 15:41 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Mikhail Maltsev L | 14:09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sami Vatanen D | 17:01 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 12:40 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 14:39 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 17:16 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 13:32 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ty Smith D | 18:01 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 13:04 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:21 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 15:21 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 21:18 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 15:21 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:04 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 23:34 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:10 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 59:39 | +2.97 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Krejci C | 18:34 | +0.33 | +0.35 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 25:23 | +0.31 | +0.50 | −0.24 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 18:14 | +0.24 | +0.27 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 15:28 | +0.18 | +0.46 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 10:02 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:34 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 15:45 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 19:03 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 20:27 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Zboril D | 19:54 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jarred Tinordi D | 15:29 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 14:24 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 9:02 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 8:53 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:53 | −0.27 | +0.24 | −0.56 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 14:05 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 17:44 | −0.37 | +0.33 | −0.74 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 16:45 | −0.45 | −0.12 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 58:15 | +1.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.