MTL beat TOR 2–1. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brendan Gallagher scored at 16:53 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 49% to 90%. Carey Price saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:36 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Auston Matthews, Zach Hyman | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P3 6:11 | MTL | Tyler Toffoli from Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher | 1–1 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 16:53 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Jeff Petry, Tyler Toffoli | 2–1 | 49% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.34 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Phillip Danault C | 18:23 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 23:12 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.05 | +0.26 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Joel Edmundson D | 22:43 | +0.05 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 14:50 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 16:16 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 13:51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 16:47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 11:30 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 14:23 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 16:30 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 21:01 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 11:37 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 22:26 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 12:20 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 16:15 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 13:26 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 60:00 | +1.45 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Dermott D | 13:02 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:24 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 19:35 | +0.05 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 22:16 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 13:25 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:56 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 13:00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 12:43 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 9:39 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 10:43 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nic Petan C | 11:27 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:16 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 23:02 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 16:17 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 19:13 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:27 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:41 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 22:26 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.14 | −0.31 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 58:28 | +0.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.