NSH beat DET 3–2. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dante Fabbro scored at 19:00 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 50% to 96%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:58 | NSH | Ryan EllisPP from Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 19:25 | DET | Robby Fabbri from Anthony Mantha, Filip Hronek | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 19:19 | NSH | Matt Duchene from Calle Jarnkrok, Roman Josi | 1–2 | 52% → 77% |
| P2 19:33 | DET | Marc Staal from Bobby Ryan, Vladislav Namestnikov | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 19:00 | NSH | Dante Fabbro from Luke Kunin, Filip Forsberg | 2–3 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Staal D | 19:56 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.08 | +0.89 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 18:47 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.06 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 19:23 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 15:08 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Djoos D | 18:06 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 11:32 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 11:12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 15:26 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 5:46 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 15:03 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 17:04 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 18:48 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Givani Smith R | 8:30 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 23:40 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Ryan R | 16:50 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.04 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:40 | −0.50 | −0.23 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathias Brome L | 16:53 | −0.59 | −0.13 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 19:30 | 1 | −0.68 | −0.13 | −0.56 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 59:09 | −0.38 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Ellis D | 28:45 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.33 | +0.56 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 14:59 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.04 | +0.75 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 21:15 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.25 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Benning D | 12:47 | +0.31 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 17:25 | +0.28 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 12:04 | +0.17 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 12:22 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 18:11 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jarred Tinordi D | 19:01 | −0.08 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 11:48 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:04 | −0.12 | +0.18 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 13:13 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 12:04 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Roman Josi D | 23:54 | 2 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 10:06 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 14:32 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 14:21 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 17:32 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 59:37 | +0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.