MIN beat STL 4–3 in overtime. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kevin Fiala scored at 2:16 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:00 | STL | Jordan Kyrou unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 18:49 | STL | Sammy Blais from Tyler Bozak, Robert Bortuzzo | 2–0 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 6:53 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Kirill Kaprizov, Mathew Dumba | 2–1 | 17% → 33% |
| P2 12:41 | STL | David Perron from Niko Mikkola, Ryan O'Reilly | 3–1 | 69% → 86% |
| P3 14:09 | MIN | Nico Sturm from Jonas Brodin | 3–2 | 2% → 15% |
| P3 19:00 | MIN | Jonas BrodinPP from Kevin Fiala, Jared Spurgeon | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 2:16 | MIN | Kevin Fiala from Mats Zuccarello, Victor Rask | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Blais L | 13:59 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.09 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 12:56 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.03 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 19:28 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.05 | +0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 16:28 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 13:03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 17:05 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 13:03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 14:15 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 12:24 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 23:48 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:42 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Kyle Clifford L | 12:19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:06 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 19:47 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 27:23 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 15:42 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:39 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 15:47 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 61:50 | −0.62 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.05 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 16:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.18 | +0.66 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nico Sturm C | 12:16 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.08 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Carson Soucy D | 15:41 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 20:53 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 16:38 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 17:34 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 13:04 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:33 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 18:53 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 21:43 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 10:11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:16 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.52 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 16:26 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:49 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Parise L | 8:00 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 16:47 | −0.49 | −0.07 | −0.43 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 60:55 | −0.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.