NYR beat NJD 6–1. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Chris Kreider scored at 13:57 of the second, moving NYR’s win probability from 47% to 70%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:12 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Sami Vatanen | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 8:28 |  NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Ryan Strome, Pavel Buchnevich | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 13:57 | NYR | Chris Kreider from Ryan Lindgren, Ryan Strome | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 0:23 | NYR | Chris Kreider from Filip Chytil | 3–1 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 3:57 | NYR | Pavel Buchnevich from Alexis Lafrenière | 4–1 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 15:25 | NYR | Brendan Smith from Phillip Di Giuseppe, Kevin Rooney | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 18:27 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Mika Zibanejad | 6–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kreider L | 13:27 | 3 | +2.17 | +0.12 | +2.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 14:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.16 | +0.90 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brendan Smith D | 19:32 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.18 | +0.90 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 16:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.14 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ryan Strome C | 16:26 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 25:18 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 12:59 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 11:45 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:55 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 15:54 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 16:46 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 13:47 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 13:04 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 14:56 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Brett Howden C | 15:32 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Libor Hajek D | 16:50 | −0.27 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:05 | −0.28 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 13:45 | −0.43 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 54:08 | +2.77 |
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 5:52 | +0.21 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes C | 18:39 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.08 | +0.71 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sami Vatanen D | 17:09 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Maltsev L | 9:15 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 17:39 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 19:19 | +0.09 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 22:23 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 17:07 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 18:42 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 12:16 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 16:44 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Smith D | 21:18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 8:58 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 11:01 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:39 | −0.25 | +0.14 | −0.56 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 16:51 | −0.37 | +0.03 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 18:02 | −0.40 | +0.20 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 20:19 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:10 | −0.65 | +0.11 | −0.59 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 15:56 | −1.69 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 43:57 | −2.80 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.