SJS beat ANA 5–4 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (SJS 3.3, ANA 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Maxime Comtois scored at 11:33 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 18% to 52%. John Gibson allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:50 | SJS | Matt Nieto from Marcus Sorensen, Sasha Chmelevski | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 10:03 | ANA | Adam Henrique from Derek Grant, Troy Terry | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 13:48 | ANA | Troy Terry from Cam Fowler, Derek Grant | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 18:22 | ANA | Maxime Comtois from Rickard Rakell | 1–3 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 0:39 | SJS | Logan Couture from Evander Kane, Brent Burns | 2–3 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 2:06 | SJS | Evander KaneSH unassisted | 3–3 | 21% → 47% |
| P3 8:04 | SJS | Brent Burns from Ryan Donato | 4–3 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 11:33 | ANA | Maxime Comtois from Carter Rowney, Hampus Lindholm | 4–4 | 18% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 28:34 | 1 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.08 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matt Nieto L | 14:02 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.10 | +0.50 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 21:12 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.22 | +0.57 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.19 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 15:40 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.67 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 18:04 | +0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.33 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 19:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.09 | +0.35 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Radim Simek D | 15:22 | +0.23 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Sorensen L | 13:27 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 25:57 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 15:39 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 13:47 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 15:52 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 11:16 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:29 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 13:40 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:25 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sasha Chmelevski C | 6:11 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.03 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Dylan Gambrell C | 19:39 | −0.55 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 65:00 | −0.37 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Comtois L | 17:15 | 2 | +1.16 | −0.24 | +1.62 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Troy Terry R | 11:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.19 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Henrique C | 16:35 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.03 | +0.79 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 26:29 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.31 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 15:24 | +0.15 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 16:38 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 25:22 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:34 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 13:32 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 17:15 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 13:10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 23:17 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 17:42 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 16:29 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 15:25 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 16:19 | −0.32 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 14:13 | 2 | −0.51 | +0.04 | −0.56 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:53 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.24 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 64:59 | −1.71 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.