NSH beat FLA 6–5 in overtime. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Filip Forsberg scored at 4:00 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Juuse Saros allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:28 |  FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:02 |  NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Ryan Ellis, Ryan Johansen | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 10:09 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau from Markus Nutivaara, Patric Hornqvist | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 15:48 | NSH | Calle Jarnkrok from Filip Forsberg | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 0:54 | FLA | Aaron EkbladPP from Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau | 2–3 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 6:50 | NSH | Matt Duchene from Filip Forsberg, Mikael Granlund | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 8:01 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle | 3–4 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 15:54 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau unassisted | 3–5 | 76% → 90% |
| P3 17:54 | NSH | Roman JosiPP from Mattias Ekholm, Filip Forsberg | 4–5 | 0% → 7% |
| P3 19:03 | NSH | Matt DuchenePP from Nick Cousins, Erik Haula | 5–5 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 4:00 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Viktor Arvidsson | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 19:16 | 2 | +1.77 | +0.29 | +1.27 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Roman Josi D | 25:07 | 1 | +1.65 | +0.64 | +0.79 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 21:53 | 2 | 3 | +1.46 | +0.57 | +0.84 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 16:04 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.20 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 16:43 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.81 | −0.72 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Ellis D | 25:40 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.28 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 11:09 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Erik Haula L | 13:45 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 12:17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 14:52 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 11:21 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jarred Tinordi D | 15:43 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 17:48 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 22:59 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 17:23 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 8:03 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 24:11 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 18:30 | −0.46 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 22:53 | +0.86 |
| Juuse Saros G | 39:14 | −2.69 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 15:38 | 3 | 2 | +2.64 | +0.11 | +2.50 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 23:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.07 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:22 | +0.25 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 26:44 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.53 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Markus Nutivaara D | 16:13 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Connolly R | 13:25 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juho Lammikko C | 10:36 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 20:41 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 17:51 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 18:36 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:44 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:36 | −0.28 | +0.15 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aleksi Heponiemi C | 9:57 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:12 | −0.31 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 14:31 | −0.32 | +0.12 | −0.46 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 14:56 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:11 | −0.64 | −0.40 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 15:02 | −0.67 | −0.53 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 64:00 | −2.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.