BOS beat WSH 5–3. BOS also won the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brandon Carlo scored at 17:23 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 49% to 91%. Jaroslav Halak allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:26 | WSH | Zdeno Chara from Garnet Hathaway, Nic Dowd | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:37 | WSH | Daniel Sprong from Jakub Vrana, Nick Jensen | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 8:35 | WSH | John CarlsonPP from Jakub Vrana | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 12:37 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Brad Marchand, Brandon Carlo | 1–3 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 6:08 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Jakub Zboril, Charlie McAvoy | 2–3 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 13:07 | BOS | Craig Smith from Jeremy Lauzon, Nick Ritchie | 3–3 | 14% → 49% |
| P3 17:23 | BOS | Brandon Carlo from Sean Kuraly, Chris Wagner | 4–3 | 49% → 91% |
| P3 18:34 | BOS | Brad MarchandEN from David Krejci | 5–3 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 20:00 | 2 | +1.51 | −0.05 | +1.33 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.02 | +0.89 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Craig Smith C | 16:05 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.05 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 21:47 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.23 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 10:26 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:24 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Karson Kuhlman C | 5:33 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 15:14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Zboril D | 16:49 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 20:32 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 18:34 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 9:05 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 15:55 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 21:37 | 1 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| David Krejci C | 18:41 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Chris Wagner R | 12:43 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kevan Miller D | 19:01 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 18:33 | 1 | −0.60 | +0.05 | −0.81 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 59:29 | −1.42 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zdeno Chara D | 20:06 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.12 | +0.85 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 23:56 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.77 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 5:14 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.06 | +0.85 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 15:56 | +0.15 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 16:26 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 17:51 | +0.08 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 22:47 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 15:24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 12:24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 15:46 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 7:14 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 16:36 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:36 | −0.21 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 13:26 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 12:35 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 22:15 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 14:49 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 23:03 | −0.73 | −0.17 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 58:36 | −1.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.