NJD beat BUF 5–3. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 3.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Michael McLeod scored at 10:40 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 48% to 81%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:20 | NJD | Michael McLeod from P.K. Subban, Ryan Murray | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 19:43 | NJD | Andreas Johnsson from Jesper Bratt, Ty Smith | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 14:11 | BUF | Curtis Lazar from Rasmus Ristolainen, Jake McCabe | 2–1 | 14% → 30% |
| P2 15:23 | BUF | Rasmus DahlinPP from Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 19:59 | NJD | Miles Wood from Janne Kuokkanen | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 3:53 | BUF | Rasmus RistolainenPP from Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel | 3–3 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 10:40 | NJD | Michael McLeod from Miles Wood, Nathan Bastian | 4–3 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 19:52 | NJD | Miles WoodEN from Pavel Zacha, Damon Severson | 5–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McLeod C | 17:03 | 2 | +1.51 | +0.01 | +1.57 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 14:09 | 1 | +1.22 | +0.10 | +0.73 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.01 | |
| Miles Wood L | 14:10 | 2 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:37 | +0.23 | +0.42 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:39 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.28 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Maltsev L | 10:20 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Tennyson D | 14:34 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Smith D | 16:39 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 18:41 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.38 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:18 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.14 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Gusev L | 13:41 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 11:24 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 15:58 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 14:51 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Murray D | 21:50 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 21:25 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 14:18 | −0.36 | +0.12 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 13:33 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.07 | −0.43 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 60:00 | +0.23 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 28:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.22 | +0.45 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Curtis Lazar C | 12:29 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.05 | +0.59 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:32 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Rieder L | 14:02 | +0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 19:53 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Sheahan C | 12:01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 20:27 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 21:25 | −0.08 | +0.23 | −0.38 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 10:40 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 12:23 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 9:51 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 13:50 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 13:11 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 14:19 | −0.27 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 13:44 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 21:58 | 2 | −0.37 | +0.21 | −0.76 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 22:46 | −0.38 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 13:15 | −0.52 | −0.23 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hutton G | 58:03 | −0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.