ARI beat ANA 3–2. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 1.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Christian Dvorak scored on the power play at 15:34 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 89%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:16 | ANA | Jakob Silfverberg unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 7:43 | ARI | Christian Dvorak from Jakob Chychrun, Derick Brassard | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 0:52 | ARI | Conor Garland from Jordan Oesterle, Clayton Keller | 1–2 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 8:57 | ANA | Danton HeinenPP from Maxime Comtois, Cam Fowler | 2–2 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 15:34 | ARI | Christian DvorakPP from Phil Kessel, Nick Schmaltz | 2–3 | 52% → 89% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danton Heinen L | 13:53 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.03 | +0.33 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 16:23 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.45 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 20:01 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxime Comtois L | 12:50 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jacob Larsson D | 19:28 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 9:00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 11:25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 20:33 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 14:21 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 12:00 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:43 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 17:27 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 17:58 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 19:53 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.40 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 14:36 | −0.43 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 18:18 | −0.63 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 21:31 | −0.72 | −0.55 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 21:45 | −1.06 | −0.44 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 58:20 | +0.13 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dvorak C | 19:25 | 2 | +0.88 | +0.11 | +0.80 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 15:25 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.14 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.04 | |
| Conor Garland R | 16:22 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Gross D | 15:16 | +0.26 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 19:22 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 20:22 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.20 | −0.16 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 22:13 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Caggiula L | 15:21 | +0.17 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 17:34 | +0.17 | +0.26 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 14:52 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 15:58 | +0.13 | +0.33 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 17:20 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 16:27 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 13:25 | +0.05 | +0.28 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 11:27 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 17:47 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 14:55 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 12:21 | −0.17 | +0.24 | −0.35 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 59:43 | −0.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.