DAL beat DET 7–3. Expected goals were close to even (DET 2.1, DAL 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Joe Pavelski scored at 11:36 of the first, moving DAL’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Jonathan Bernier allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:36 |  DAL | Joe Pavelski from Tanner Kero, Miro Heiskanen | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 7:56 | DAL | Andrew Cogliano from Justin Dowling, Denis Gurianov | 0–2 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 11:59 | DET | Valtteri Filppula from Anthony Mantha, Troy Stecher | 1–2 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 14:45 | DAL | Denis Gurianov unassisted | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 4:18 | DAL | Jamie Oleksiak from Miro Heiskanen, Tanner Kero | 1–4 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 7:26 | DET | Tyler BertuzziPP from Michael Rasmussen, Filip Hronek | 2–4 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 13:04 | DET | Danny DeKeyser from Michael Rasmussen, Christian Djoos | 3–4 | 2% → 14% |
| P3 14:52 | DAL | Ty DellandreaPP from Miro Heiskanen, Alexander Radulov | 3–5 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 16:24 | DAL | Justin DowlingEN from Jason Dickinson, Denis Gurianov | 3–6 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 18:29 | DAL | John Klingberg from Ty Dellandrea | 3–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valtteri Filppula C | 15:49 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.02 | +0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.04 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 16:22 | 2 | +0.51 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Danny DeKeyser D | 15:50 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.06 | +0.48 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 23:09 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 16:33 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 18:54 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.33 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 17:39 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 9:42 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 9:37 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 14:53 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 17:14 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 18:31 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Christian Djoos D | 18:29 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taro Hirose L | 16:57 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:19 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 15:56 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mathias Brome L | 13:28 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:29 | −0.38 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 40:00 | −1.57 |
| Thomas Greiss G | 19:31 | −2.23 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miro Heiskanen D | 23:59 | 3 | +0.93 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| John Klingberg D | 18:19 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.10 | +0.44 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 12:16 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.11 | +0.36 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 17:10 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.04 | +0.47 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 12:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.05 | +0.33 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.03 |
| Joe Pavelski C | 20:37 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.13 | +0.40 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 15:12 | 1 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.01 | +0.30 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tanner Kero C | 15:07 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Dowling C | 13:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Esa Lindell D | 23:02 | +0.19 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 20:47 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 14:07 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel L'Esperance R | 8:57 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 16:41 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.19 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Rhett Gardner C | 7:07 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 21:03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Caamano R | 6:33 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 17:50 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.36 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 59:57 | −0.98 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.