STL beat VGK 5–4 in a shootout. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Max Pacioretty scored at 16:35 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 10% to 51%. Robin Lehner allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:17 | VGK | Alex Tuch from Keegan Kolesar, Alex Pietrangelo | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:08 | STL | David Perron from Ryan O'Reilly | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 8:11 | STL | David PerronPP from Torey Krug, Jaden Schwartz | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:10 | STL | Jaden Schwartz from Brayden Schenn | 3–1 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 1:42 | VGK | Max Pacioretty from Mark Stone, Alec Martinez | 3–2 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 10:44 | STL | Jordan Kyrou unassisted | 4–2 | 69% → 85% |
| P3 10:36 | VGK | Max PaciorettyPP from Shea Theodore, Mark Stone | 4–3 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 16:35 | VGK | Max Pacioretty from Alec Martinez, Mark Stone | 4–4 | 10% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Perron L | 19:30 | 2 | +1.50 | −0.11 | +1.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.67 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.00 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:52 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Torey Krug D | 23:08 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 11:56 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 7:59 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 10:40 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 13:27 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 8:41 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 12:40 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 12:21 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 11:49 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 16:34 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 26:28 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 17:55 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:16 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.18 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 21:31 | −0.44 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 26:51 | −0.68 | −0.12 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 65:00 | +0.95 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Pacioretty L | 21:26 | 3 | +2.14 | +0.13 | +1.99 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 14:46 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.12 | +0.75 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 25:23 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.08 | −0.49 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 11:59 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 13:28 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 7:56 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 23:39 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.22 | −0.10 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 28:57 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 5:41 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 21:33 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 18:35 | 3 | −0.07 | +0.26 | −0.56 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 9:05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:44 | −0.19 | +0.14 | −0.35 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 21:35 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 13:02 | −0.38 | +0.05 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 21:16 | −0.58 | −0.02 | −0.57 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 21:27 | −0.72 | +0.11 | −0.49 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 65:00 | −2.80 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.