LAK beat MIN 2–1. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Carl Grundstrom scored at 5:08 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 48% to 76%. Cal Petersen saved 3.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:02 | LAK | Kurtis MacDermid from Andreas Athanasiou, Jeff Carter | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 1:09 |  MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway | 1–1 | 27% → 53% |
| P3 5:08 | LAK | Carl Grundstrom from Trevor Moore, Sean Walker | 2–1 | 48% → 76% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 15:30 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.12 | +0.40 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 12:38 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.15 | +0.44 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 19:21 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 13:27 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dustin Brown R | 13:26 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 13:54 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lias Andersson C | 11:54 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 13:31 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 18:14 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 14:09 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 18:01 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kale Clague D | 17:29 | −0.18 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 16:47 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.27 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 19:59 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 21:02 | −0.31 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 11:54 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.04 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 23:32 | −0.61 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 19:12 | −0.61 | −0.23 | −0.33 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Petersen G | 60:00 | +3.68 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 17:00 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.29 | +0.17 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 19:52 | +0.38 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:24 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.33 | −0.19 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 20:14 | +0.21 | +0.29 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 13:34 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.21 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:53 | +0.12 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 10:04 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 24:59 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 7:53 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 13:39 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 8:40 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 24:04 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 22:03 | −0.18 | +0.17 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 14:03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 20:46 | −0.21 | +0.19 | −0.27 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 12:57 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 14:03 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 14:42 | −0.36 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 58:10 | −0.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.