TOR beat CGY 3–2. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Wayne Simmonds scored on the power play at 19:28 of the second, moving TOR’s win probability from 49% to 72%. Jack Campbell saved 4.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:46 | TOR | Jake Muzzin from Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 12:53 | CGY | Sean Monahan from Noah Hanifin, Johnny Gaudreau | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 19:28 | TOR | Wayne SimmondsPP from Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly | 2–1 | 49% → 72% |
| P3 2:42 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Jason Spezza, Morgan Rielly | 3–1 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 6:33 | CGY | Matthew TkachukPP from Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson | 3–2 | 7% → 23% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Muzzin D | 22:54 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.11 | +0.44 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 9:38 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 11:43 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.40 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 23:00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 21:42 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.26 | +0.30 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 5:46 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 15:01 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 7:38 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:28 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:45 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 10:56 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 13:41 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:48 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.31 | −0.28 | +0.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 16:00 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:11 | 3 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 22:19 | −0.23 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:56 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 18:17 | −0.54 | +0.14 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 60:00 | +3.95 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 19:08 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.32 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 17:26 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:13 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.29 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dominik Simon C | 7:55 | +0.20 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 19:52 | +0.17 | +0.30 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 16:57 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.18 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 21:53 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 22:58 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.34 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 17:22 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:09 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 20:52 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 9:25 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 9:51 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterov D | 17:45 | −0.19 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 17:55 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.35 | −0.34 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Leivo L | 13:54 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 8:32 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:56 | −0.51 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 57:49 | −0.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.