FLA beat CAR 4–3 in overtime. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jonathan Huberdeau scored at 2:29 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:28 |  CAR | Jordan Staal from Warren Foegele | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 18:50 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Brett Pesce, Brock McGinn | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 10:52 | FLA | Jonathan HuberdeauPP from Keith Yandle, Chris Driedger | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P3 3:11 | FLA | Alexander Wennberg from Jonathan Huberdeau, Patric Hornqvist | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 12:06 | FLA | Juho Lammikko from Ryan Lomberg | 3–2 | 49% → 82% |
| P3 13:39 | CAR | Vincent TrocheckPP from Andrei Svechnikov, Dougie Hamilton | 3–3 | 16% → 51% |
| OT 2:29 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau from Aleksander Barkov | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:03 | 2 | 1 | +1.94 | +0.27 | +1.46 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:44 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.07 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Juho Lammikko C | 13:04 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.19 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 14:37 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 16:03 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 14:40 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 16:53 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 13:06 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 20:40 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.47 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 9:55 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 16:01 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 17:23 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 12:34 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 22:11 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 13:26 | −0.48 | −0.11 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 26:05 | −0.50 | −0.12 | −0.41 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:51 | −0.60 | +0.05 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 18:06 | −0.74 | −0.15 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Driedger G | 62:29 | +0.90 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal C | 18:02 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.15 | +0.81 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 17:48 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.14 | +0.55 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:10 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.18 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 19:50 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.30 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:18 | +0.17 | +0.27 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 14:47 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 23:45 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cedric Paquette C | 8:31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 11:12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 12:13 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 18:35 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 16:38 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 17:29 | −0.25 | +0.17 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 11:08 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 19:31 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 20:43 | −0.34 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 12:45 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:27 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.18 | −0.50 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 62:27 | −0.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.