VAN beat MTL 6–5 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 3.5, VAN 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brock Boeser scored at 16:51 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 10% to 51%. Carey Price allowed 3.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:07 | VAN | Bo HorvatPP from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 1:37 | MTL | Tyler Toffoli from Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:25 | VAN | Tyler Motte unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 5:27 | MTL | Tyler ToffoliPP from Nick Suzuki, Shea Weber | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 11:13 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat | 2–3 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 18:25 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 3:24 | VAN | Bo HorvatPP from Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller | 3–4 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 10:14 | MTL | Jesperi Kotkaniemi unassisted | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 16:19 | MTL | Tyler Toffoli from Jeff Petry, Joel Armia | 5–4 | 49% → 89% |
| P3 16:51 | VAN | Brock Boeser from J.T. Miller, Tyler Myers | 5–5 | 10% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 28:20 | 3 | +2.35 | +0.65 | +2.16 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.49 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 26:40 | 1 | 1 | +1.23 | +0.78 | +0.66 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.06 | +0.00 |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 29:26 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 36:42 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.07 | −0.35 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.01 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 29:06 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.99 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 32:28 | +0.55 | +0.62 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 46:32 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.38 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 23:32 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 39:44 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 30:00 | −0.11 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 33:46 | −0.21 | +0.24 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 50:56 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 50:46 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 34:02 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 32:10 | −0.31 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 29:40 | −0.37 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 28:12 | −0.49 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 29:54 | −0.71 | −0.81 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 130:00 | −3.42 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat C | 47:58 | 2 | 1 | +2.42 | −0.10 | +1.62 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +1.01 |
| J.T. Miller C | 39:58 | 3 | +0.86 | +0.54 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.79 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 43:00 | 2 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.95 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 |
| Tyler Motte C | 32:00 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.71 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 41:56 | +0.59 | +0.74 | −0.24 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.32 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 13:56 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 29:07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 31:00 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 43:22 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.37 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 28:14 | −0.22 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 31:51 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 17:48 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 55:24 | −0.34 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 23:48 | −0.38 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 54:06 | 2 | −0.39 | −0.33 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.27 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jay Beagle C | 27:18 | −0.43 | −0.14 | −0.39 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 29:58 | −0.65 | −0.51 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 39:38 | −0.77 | −0.65 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 130:00 | −1.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.