NSH beat CBJ 5–2. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brad Richardson scored at 11:00 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 52% to 84%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:58 | CBJ | Nick Foligno from Michael Del Zotto, Alexandre Texier | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:44 | NSH | Rocco Grimaldi from Ryan Ellis | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P3 1:43 | NSH | Filip Forsberg unassisted | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 5:47 | CBJ | Alexandre Texier from Liam Foudy, Michael Del Zotto | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 11:00 | NSH | Brad Richardson from Mattias Ekholm | 2–3 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 14:28 | NSH | Luke Kunin from Nick Cousins, Matt Duchene | 2–4 | 88% → 98% |
| P3 15:22 | NSH | Colton Sissons from Viktor Arvidsson, Dante Fabbro | 2–5 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Foudy C | 14:43 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 20:41 | +0.32 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 15:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.24 | +0.31 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 |
| Michael Del Zotto D | 15:02 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.13 | −0.15 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 20:14 | +0.19 | +0.26 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 17:15 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.34 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.05 | |
| Dean Kukan D | 13:10 | +0.03 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 15:19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 9:24 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 9:12 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Grigorenko C | 16:04 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 11:21 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:24 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 16:11 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 24:32 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 24:37 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 15:47 | −0.36 | +0.06 | −0.38 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 17:28 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:00 | −2.30 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Richardson R | 11:59 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.09 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Ellis D | 22:17 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.28 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:10 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.00 | +0.41 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 12:31 | +0.30 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 10:06 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.25 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 16:29 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 11:58 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 22:16 | +0.12 | +0.04 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 14:33 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.14 | +0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 19:11 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 14:16 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.27 | +0.27 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mark Borowiecki D | 16:07 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:48 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 18:01 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Benning D | 17:08 | −0.13 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 18:47 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 17:25 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Erik Haula L | 12:58 | −0.60 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:00 | +1.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.