DET beat CAR 4–2. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Robby Fabbri scored at 17:18 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 92%. Jonathan Bernier saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:44 | DET | Bobby Ryan from Filip Zadina | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 0:28 | CAR | Vincent TrocheckPP from Andrei Svechnikov, Dougie Hamilton | 1–1 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 0:46 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi | 1–2 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 8:56 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Jordan Martinook | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 17:18 | DET | Robby Fabbri from Filip Zadina, Filip Hronek | 2–3 | 52% → 92% |
| P3 18:04 | DET | Dylan LarkinEN from Patrik Nemeth | 2–4 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.14 | +0.35 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brett Pesce D | 20:35 | +0.44 | +0.22 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:18 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 17:59 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.13 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:48 | +0.07 | +0.24 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 13:56 | +0.07 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 15:12 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:01 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 16:22 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:28 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 10:38 | −0.08 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 11:44 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 15:17 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 15:03 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 11:27 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 17:10 | −0.24 | +0.10 | −0.27 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 18:46 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:51 | −0.35 | +0.15 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 57:54 | −1.11 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby Fabbri C | 14:01 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.02 | +0.38 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 13:28 | 2 | +0.38 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 18:43 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 12:37 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.23 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 10:56 | +0.18 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 19:17 | +0.17 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:47 | 2 | +0.09 | −0.25 | +0.38 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Marc Staal D | 19:26 | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 25:22 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 9:51 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 14:21 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 14:40 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.06 | ||
| Mathias Brome L | 13:06 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 22:17 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 18:04 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.31 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 12:46 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 13:37 | −0.47 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 19:42 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.31 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 59:55 | +1.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.