FLA beat DAL 5–4 in overtime. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Aleksander Barkov scored on the power play at 2:50 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Anton Khudobin allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:53 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau from Owen Tippett, Keith Yandle | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 2:42 | FLA | Nikita Gusev from Brandon Montour | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 12:04 | DAL | Joe PavelskiPP from Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson | 1–2 | 17% → 30% |
| P1 14:13 | FLA | MacKenzie Weegar from Owen Tippett, Grigori Denisenko | 1–3 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 17:16 | DAL | Jason Robertson unassisted | 2–3 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 0:45 | FLA | Gustav Forsling from Grigori Denisenko, Aleksander Barkov | 2–4 | 72% → 86% |
| P3 3:55 | DAL | Joel Kiviranta from Tanner Kero, Jamie Oleksiak | 3–4 | 7% → 21% |
| P3 4:06 | DAL | Tyler Seguin from Denis Gurianov, John Klingberg | 4–4 | 21% → 48% |
| OT 2:50 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Keith Yandle, MacKenzie Weegar | 4–5 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson L | 17:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.05 | +0.36 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tanner Kero C | 7:48 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 12:22 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 16:23 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.23 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 18:57 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 11:40 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Klingberg D | 20:33 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 26:11 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.12 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 22:06 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rhett Gardner C | 8:22 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 18:42 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.31 | −0.08 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sami Vatanen D | 12:04 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 17:17 | −0.19 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Comeau L | 15:06 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 23:17 | −0.28 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 17:09 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.51 | +0.28 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 18:15 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 19:03 | −0.45 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 42:05 | +2.16 |
| Anton Khudobin G | 20:45 | −2.69 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Yandle D | 17:55 | 2 | +0.56 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:56 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.28 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 17:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.14 | +0.20 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.05 |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 21:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.09 | +0.37 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Owen Tippett R | 15:34 | 2 | +0.39 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:44 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.16 | +0.35 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:50 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.26 | −0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Gusev L | 13:04 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.10 | +0.20 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 14:47 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Grigori Denisenko L | 13:10 | 2 | +0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Markus Nutivaara D | 19:49 | +0.16 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:58 | +0.15 | +0.38 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 18:00 | +0.08 | +0.33 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aleksi Heponiemi C | 13:29 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 13:42 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 11:57 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 13:20 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.18 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:39 | −0.26 | +0.13 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 62:50 | −1.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.