MIN beat ANA 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.8, ANA 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kevin Fiala scored on the power play at 4:01 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Ryan Miller allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:18 | ANA | Jakob Silfverberg from Rickard Rakell, Jacob Larsson | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:02 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Alex Galchenyuk, Marcus Foligno | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 13:33 | MIN | Kevin FialaPP from Zach Parise, Jared Spurgeon | 2–1 | 48% → 64% |
| P2 11:52 | ANA | Danton Heinen from Sonny Milano, Ryan Getzlaf | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 14:55 | ANA | Jakob Silfverberg from Rickard Rakell | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 1:49 | MIN | Victor Rask unassisted | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 14:20 | MIN | Alex Galchenyuk unassisted | 4–3 | 49% → 86% |
| P3 18:18 | ANA | Christian DjoosPP from Jakob Silfverberg, Rickard Rakell | 4–4 | 8% → 50% |
| OT 4:01 | MIN | Kevin FialaPP from Luke Kunin, Ryan Suter | 5–4 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Fiala L | 20:52 | 2 | +1.62 | −0.04 | +1.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Rask C | 9:30 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.10 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 16:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.08 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.04 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 15:21 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.20 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Greg Pateryn D | 15:41 | +0.15 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 12:20 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 27:09 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 20:29 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 10:24 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 26:14 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Koivu C | 13:06 | −0.19 | +0.15 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:51 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:04 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 13:33 | −0.25 | +0.18 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 12:27 | −0.31 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 16:09 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.34 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:27 | −0.47 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 17:21 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.08 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 64:01 | −1.39 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 19:44 | 2 | 1 | +1.53 | +0.05 | +1.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Danton Heinen L | 17:05 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.07 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Djoos D | 24:17 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.07 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 14:23 | +0.27 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 18:41 | +0.15 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 20:34 | +0.14 | +0.21 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 11:46 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| David Backes R | 10:32 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 19:14 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 15:54 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 10:46 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 21:55 | −0.10 | +0.30 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 19:12 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 14:05 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 17:36 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 16:01 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 16:54 | −0.30 | +0.12 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:16 | 3 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 63:37 | −1.66 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.