OTT beat SJS 2–1 in overtime. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Chris Tierney scored at 0:35 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Craig Anderson saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:33 | OTT | Nick Paul from Anthony Duclair, Jayce Hawryluk | 1–0 | 46% → 64% |
| P1 19:49 | SJS | Evander Kane from Brent Burns, Timo Meier | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| OT 0:35 | OTT | Chris Tierney from Anthony Duclair, Thomas Chabot | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tierney C | 18:42 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.25 | +0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Nick Paul L | 16:00 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.02 | +0.54 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 19:34 | +0.16 | +0.24 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:26 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 21:40 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:54 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 17:55 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:23 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 12:49 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Christian Wolanin D | 15:55 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 23:37 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Peca C | 9:18 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 12:52 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 15:38 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Sabourin R | 10:57 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 14:14 | −0.35 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 16:49 | −0.37 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 12:32 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 39:58 | +2.83 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evander Kane L | 20:08 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.29 | +0.40 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 11:48 | +0.24 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 19:40 | +0.11 | +0.34 | −0.43 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Alexander True C | 8:27 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 31:35 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.26 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radim Simek D | 22:07 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Davidson D | 12:00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 13:00 | −0.13 | +0.14 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 16:22 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tim Heed D | 20:15 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kellman C | 16:25 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 19:53 | −0.18 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 17:02 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Antti Suomela C | 9:17 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 16:38 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 12:56 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Sorensen L | 13:53 | −0.46 | −0.07 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 18:33 | 1 | −0.65 | +0.01 | −0.69 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 60:21 | +1.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.