VAN beat COL 6–3. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Antoine Roussel scored at 12:17 of the second, moving VAN’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Pavel Francouz allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:22 | VAN | Troy Stecher from J.T. Miller, Alexander Edler | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 12:29 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Elias Pettersson, Tyler Toffoli | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 13:17 | COL | Erik Johnson from Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P2 2:12 | VAN | Zack MacEwen unassisted | 1–3 | 71% → 86% |
| P2 3:23 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Nathan MacKinnon, Erik Johnson | 2–3 | 14% → 27% |
| P2 8:04 | COL | Valeri Nichushkin from Matt Nieto | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 12:17 | VAN | Antoine Roussel from Adam Gaudette, Oscar Fantenberg | 3–4 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 16:43 | VAN | Zack MacEwen from Antoine Roussel, Adam Gaudette | 3–5 | 91% → 99% |
| P3 17:24 | VAN | Tanner PearsonEN from Loui Eriksson, Chris Tanev | 3–6 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 17:25 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.20 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 20:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.09 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Erik Johnson D | 22:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.19 | +0.70 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:58 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.29 | −0.34 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 15:37 | +0.20 | +0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 23:39 | +0.16 | +0.23 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 24:19 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 8:46 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 18:50 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sheldon Dries C | 3:56 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 14:21 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Barberio D | 16:20 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 14:43 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.21 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:16 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 6:19 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 19:29 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 18:22 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Vladislav Kamenev C | 6:26 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 59:44 | −2.66 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack MacEwen C | 7:15 | 2 | +1.59 | +0.10 | +1.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Antoine Roussel L | 10:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Troy Stecher D | 13:23 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.14 | +0.86 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 22:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.18 | +0.55 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:26 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 21:57 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Fantenberg D | 15:14 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:18 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 12:50 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 12:33 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 23:58 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 13:42 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 17:26 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 19:45 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 19:50 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Virtanen R | 12:41 | −0.36 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:06 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.18 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Edler D | 20:23 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 59:47 | +0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.