NJD beat STL 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (STL 2.7, NJD 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dakota Mermis scored at 6:50 of the second, moving NJD’s win probability from 53% to 73%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:38 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from P.K. Subban | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:31 |  STL | Vince DunnPP from Tyler Bozak, Robert Thomas | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 6:50 | NJD | Dakota Mermis from Damon Severson, Cory Schneider | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 17:58 | NJD | Connor Carrick from Fredrik Claesson, Travis Zajac | 1–3 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 16:49 | STL | Jaden Schwartz from Brayden Schenn | 2–3 | 1% → 9% |
| P3 19:03 | NJD | Joey AndersonEN from Pavel Zacha, Mirco Mueller | 2–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Dunn D | 19:39 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.04 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 19:37 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.12 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 17:06 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 11:21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 8:10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 11:17 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 17:08 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:57 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 16:49 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 12:42 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 18:04 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 20:34 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 23:47 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:48 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Steen L | 10:22 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 22:26 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 14:19 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.04 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:03 | −0.50 | −0.14 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 58:10 | +0.25 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Mermis D | 20:41 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.03 | +0.86 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Carrick D | 14:42 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.09 | +0.74 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 11:40 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 17:31 | +0.19 | +0.15 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:06 | +0.19 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Claesson D | 14:12 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joey Anderson R | 16:10 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 10:34 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:08 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Mirco Mueller D | 21:32 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Hayden C | 10:06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Gusev L | 12:48 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 14:27 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 15:46 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 21:17 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 16:53 | −0.62 | +0.11 | −0.54 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 14:07 | −0.65 | −0.02 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 25:26 | 1 | −0.77 | −0.01 | −0.52 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Schneider G | 60:00 | +0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.