NYR beat WSH 6–5 in overtime. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mika Zibanejad scored at 0:33 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Ilya Samsonov allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:05 | WSH | Carl Hagelin from Nick Jensen, Ilya Kovalchuk | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:01 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Artemi Panarin, Tony DeAngelo | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 5:29 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Adam Fox, Pavel Buchnevich | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 12:01 | WSH | Ilya Kovalchuk from Lars Eller, Richard Panik | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 14:42 | NYR | Tony DeAngelo from Artemi Panarin, Marc Staal | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 14:58 | WSH | Garnet Hathaway from Michal Kempny, Richard Panik | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 0:12 | NYR | Mika Zibanejad from Pavel Buchnevich | 3–4 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 9:22 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom | 4–4 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 18:18 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Kaapo Kakko, Brendan Lemieux | 4–5 | 52% → 94% |
| P3 19:17 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Ilya Kovalchuk, John Carlson | 5–5 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 0:33 | NYR | Mika Zibanejad from Artemi Panarin, Tony DeAngelo | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin L | 14:49 | 2 | +1.55 | +0.17 | +1.34 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 11:26 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.04 | +0.89 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 18:03 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.05 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Ilya Kovalchuk L | 14:06 | 1 | 2 | +0.80 | +0.16 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Jensen D | 22:41 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Michal Kempny D | 14:45 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.21 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 13:48 | +0.17 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 17:32 | +0.17 | +0.32 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 18:48 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.28 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Jakub Vrana L | 13:18 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 19:17 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 8:57 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.13 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 22:22 | −0.23 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 9:18 | −0.27 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 22:00 | 2 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 14:38 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 15:06 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.16 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.53 | −0.03 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 19:32 | −1.12 | −0.24 | −0.87 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 58:52 | −2.93 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Zibanejad C | 24:56 | 5 | +3.31 | −0.10 | +3.44 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 21:19 | 1 | 2 | +0.42 | −0.14 | +0.59 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Artemi Panarin L | 27:02 | 3 | +0.18 | +0.15 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 18:56 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 17:15 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 8:34 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 8:41 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 11:12 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:36 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 5:44 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 17:48 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 9:24 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 11:05 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 25:43 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 15:44 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.27 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 17:51 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:51 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 13:02 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:29 | −2.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.