ANA beat COL 4–3 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Rickard Rakell scored at 4:58 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Pavel Francouz allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:51 | COL | Vladislav Namestnikov from Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:34 | ANA | Andrew Agozzino from Carter Rowney, Matt Irwin | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 13:40 | ANA | Brendan Guhle from Jakob Silfverberg, Rickard Rakell | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 14:29 | COL | Gabriel LandeskogPP from Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost | 2–2 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 12:48 | ANA | Sam Steel from Ryan Getzlaf | 3–2 | 48% → 69% |
| P3 7:19 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Jost | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| OT 4:58 | ANA | Rickard Rakell unassisted | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Guhle D | 10:55 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.02 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Agozzino L | 9:23 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.06 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Steel C | 14:28 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.07 | +0.50 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Christian Djoos D | 25:52 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:48 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 16:51 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 15:08 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 14:00 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Del Zotto D | 24:49 | −0.31 | −0.46 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 18:16 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 14:14 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 19:19 | −0.39 | −0.54 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 27:42 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.34 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 18:52 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.21 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 20:25 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.16 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 11:27 | −0.69 | −0.02 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.35 | −0.01 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 18:15 | −0.76 | −0.50 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 64:58 | +0.95 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.40 | +0.15 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 23:32 | 1 | 2 | +0.60 | +0.42 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.09 |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 14:48 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.10 | +0.51 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 23:15 | +0.34 | +0.35 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 26:43 | +0.32 | +0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 23:16 | +0.17 | +0.21 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 11:09 | +0.15 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Vladislav Kamenev C | 7:11 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 7:46 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 28:41 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.22 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 13:24 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 7:58 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Barberio D | 11:22 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 17:55 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 23:26 | −0.18 | +0.18 | −0.32 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 15:15 | −0.18 | +0.18 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Martin Kaut R | 9:21 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 17:09 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 64:55 | −1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.