CGY beat CBJ 3–2 in overtime. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: TJ Brodie scored at 4:49 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Joonas Korpisalo saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:56 | CBJ | Devin Shore from Andrew Peeke, Scott Harrington | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:20 | CBJ | Gustav Nyquist from Nick Foligno, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P3 11:14 | CGY | Elias Lindholm from Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund | 2–1 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 18:17 | CGY | Matthew TkachukPP from Mark Giordano, Rasmus Andersson | 2–2 | 8% → 50% |
| OT 4:49 | CGY | TJ Brodie from Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Shore C | 9:58 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Murray D | 21:22 | +0.14 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 23:43 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Lilja L | 11:31 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 14:56 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Harrington D | 14:12 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 23:18 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 21:43 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Stefan Matteau C | 10:27 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:55 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 15:05 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:43 | −0.14 | +0.15 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 11:56 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 16:18 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 21:25 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.50 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 25:12 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:21 | −0.46 | −0.39 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 17:22 | −0.53 | −0.10 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 64:49 | +1.20 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Brodie D | 20:53 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.43 | +0.69 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:40 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.05 | +0.56 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:37 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.17 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:09 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 22:43 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.51 | −0.58 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 15:30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:21 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 12:34 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 18:34 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 15:07 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 14:28 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 10:57 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 24:09 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 9:42 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 10:00 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:19 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.07 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 20:13 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.47 | −0.85 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 64:07 | +0.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.