CBJ beat VAN 5–3. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Emil Bemstrom scored on the power play at 18:23 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 52% to 95%. Louis Domingue allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:00 | VAN | Bo HorvatPP from Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 7:08 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Tyler Myers, J.T. Miller | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 10:01 | CBJ | Kevin Stenlund from Riley Nash, Markus Nutivaara | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P2 1:12 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Elias Pettersson, Troy Stecher | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P3 12:39 | CBJ | Riley Nash from Ryan Murray, Zach Werenski | 3–2 | 3% → 17% |
| P3 15:06 | CBJ | Zach WerenskiPP from Kevin Stenlund, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 3–3 | 14% → 51% |
| P3 18:23 | CBJ | Emil BemstromPP from David Savard, Ryan Murray | 3–4 | 52% → 95% |
| P3 19:49 | CBJ | Gustav NyquistEN from Nick Foligno, Vladislav Gavrikov | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 17:58 | 1 | 2 | +0.66 | +0.09 | +0.50 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bo Horvat C | 18:33 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.05 | +0.44 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 20:55 | 1 | 2 | +0.43 | −0.03 | +0.44 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Tanner Pearson L | 15:21 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 22:12 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 14:44 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 17:39 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack MacEwen C | 9:08 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 14:01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Fantenberg D | 18:52 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 14:27 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 16:26 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 22:19 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 18:21 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 13:27 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:52 | −0.27 | +0.06 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 12:20 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 12:40 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Louis Domingue G | 58:47 | −2.07 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski D | 25:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.00 | +0.83 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Emil Bemstrom C | 16:49 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 13:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.11 | +0.61 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Riley Nash C | 13:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 |
| Ryan Murray D | 20:28 | 2 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 18:32 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devin Shore C | 7:33 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 12:24 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Matteau C | 5:51 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 12:53 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Nutivaara D | 14:07 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:40 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 23:16 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ryan MacInnis C | 9:16 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:13 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:38 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 19:36 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| David Savard D | 26:26 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 59:59 | +0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.