OTT beat DET 4–3 in a shootout. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 6.3 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sam Gagner scored on the power play at 7:46 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 20% to 48%. Jonathan Bernier saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:59 | DET | Frans Nielsen from Adam Erne | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 6:59 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Tyler Bertuzzi, Robby Fabbri | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 13:42 | OTT | Artem AnisimovPP from Mike Reilly, Chris Tierney | 2–1 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 1:48 | OTT | Scott Sabourin from Matthew Peca, Thomas Chabot | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 6:09 | OTT | Artem Anisimov from Jayce Hawryluk, Nick Paul | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 7:46 | DET | Sam GagnerPP from Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frans Nielsen C | 11:28 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.20 | +0.68 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 14:35 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.54 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 15:57 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Dmytro Timashov L | 11:00 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Trevor Daley D | 12:44 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 19:57 | 1 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.71 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 12:54 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 13:14 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Darren Helm C | 14:33 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 22:04 | −0.28 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 21:43 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 27:08 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.30 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Biega D | 20:45 | −0.43 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 18:27 | −0.49 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 21:22 | −0.64 | −0.63 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dennis Cholowski D | 12:09 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 19:40 | 1 | −1.35 | −0.57 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 18:46 | 1 | −1.96 | −1.00 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.38 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 64:57 | +2.11 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Anisimov C | 18:27 | 2 | +1.79 | +0.77 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.79 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 30:35 | 1 | +1.45 | +1.08 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Sabourin R | 7:41 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.13 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 22:31 | +0.51 | +0.54 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 22:19 | +0.45 | +0.51 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Peca C | 9:42 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 12:56 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 21:43 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 23:30 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.22 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Andreas Englund D | 10:18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 15:36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Christian Jaros D | 9:58 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 20:51 | −0.14 | +0.18 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 19:09 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.24 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 16:18 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.31 | −0.31 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Bobby Ryan R | 20:06 | −0.27 | +0.17 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 10:06 | −0.37 | +0.08 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 23:45 | −0.40 | +0.53 | −0.94 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 65:00 | +0.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.