MTL beat CAR 4–3 in overtime. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jeff Petry scored at 0:52 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Anton Forsberg allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:40 | MTL | Phillip Danault from Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 3:46 | MTL | Max Domi from Paul Byron, Jordan Weal | 0–2 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 4:03 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 7:45 |  CAR | Haydn Fleury from Jordan Staal | 1–3 | 4% → 12% |
| P3 1:14 | CAR | Joel Edmundson from Martin Necas, Jaccob Slavin | 2–3 | 8% → 22% |
| P3 18:43 | CAR | Justin WilliamsPP from Joel Edmundson, Teuvo Teravainen | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 0:52 | MTL | Jeff Petry from Tomas Tatar | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Edmundson D | 22:50 | 1 | 1 | +1.23 | +0.16 | +0.90 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Haydn Fleury D | 21:14 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.03 | +0.92 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Williams R | 12:32 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.02 | +0.63 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 26:03 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.17 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 10:42 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 13:17 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 15:19 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Dzingel C | 11:42 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 10:23 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 12:23 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 10:48 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 15:06 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:43 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:57 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.13 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 16:33 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 23:29 | −0.31 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:58 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:05 | −0.71 | +0.09 | −0.64 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 36:27 | +0.42 |
| Anton Forsberg G | 24:03 | −1.43 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Domi C | 18:58 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.05 | +0.71 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.09 | +0.69 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Phillip Danault C | 20:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.07 | +0.79 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.04 |
| Jeff Petry D | 25:35 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.19 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 15:15 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:47 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 16:34 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Xavier Ouellet D | 13:20 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dale Weise R | 7:16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 9:55 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 23:38 | −0.01 | +0.23 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charles Hudon L | 10:24 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Christian Folin D | 10:38 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 17:17 | 3 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Byron L | 17:07 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Weal C | 16:35 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 17:02 | −0.61 | +0.03 | −0.58 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 20:18 | −0.78 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:52 | −0.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.