COL beat CAR 3–2. COL lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 5.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Samuel Girard scored at 17:23 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 49% to 91%. Pavel Francouz saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:34 | COL | Tyson Jost from Erik Johnson, Samuel Girard | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 12:51 | COL | Tyson Jost from Cale Makar | 2–0 | 69% → 86% |
| P3 5:54 | CAR | Teuvo Teravainen from Sebastian Aho, Brady Skjei | 2–1 | 7% → 24% |
| P3 7:55 | CAR | Teuvo Teravainen from Jaccob Slavin, Sebastian Aho | 2–2 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 17:23 | COL | Samuel Girard from Gabriel Landeskog, Vladislav Namestnikov | 3–2 | 49% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Jost C | 14:53 | 2 | +1.32 | −0.02 | +1.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 18:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.04 | +0.57 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Cale Makar D | 20:53 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:23 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vladislav Kamenev C | 7:51 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 19:50 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.17 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ian Cole D | 19:01 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 21:57 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 14:52 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Kaut R | 11:52 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 13:13 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 20:19 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 12:38 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 14:43 | −0.39 | −0.13 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 19:10 | −0.40 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 13:57 | −0.48 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 14:22 | −0.48 | +0.04 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:55 | −0.67 | +0.09 | −0.74 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 60:00 | +2.67 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 20:35 | 2 | +1.83 | +0.32 | +1.46 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 27:58 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.19 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 13:52 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 12:48 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 16:35 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 17:30 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 20:10 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock McGinn L | 11:23 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 10:30 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 16:54 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:54 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.56 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.09 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 12:14 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 15:10 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 20:38 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Williams R | 14:17 | −0.40 | +0.07 | −0.66 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:54 | −0.46 | +0.16 | −0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 9:22 | −0.50 | +0.06 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:44 | −0.54 | +0.06 | −0.47 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 57:30 | +0.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.