NSH beat CGY 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CGY 3.4, NSH 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mikael Granlund scored on the power play at 19:59 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 3% to 52%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:28 |  NSH | Colton Sissons from Colin Blackwell, Jarred Tinordi | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:26 | CGY | Rasmus Andersson from Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 3:48 | CGY | Mikael Backlund unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 14:30 | NSH | Roman Josi from Ryan Ellis, Colin Blackwell | 2–2 | 14% → 51% |
| P3 19:17 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson | 3–2 | 49% → 96% |
| P3 19:59 | NSH | Mikael GranlundPP from Filip Forsberg, Ryan Ellis | 3–3 | 3% → 52% |
| OT 1:20 | NSH | Mikael Granlund from Ryan Ellis, Matt Duchene | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.31 | +0.54 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:38 | 1 | 2 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 16:45 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.19 | +0.46 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 15:39 | +0.20 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 13:32 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 11:30 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 11:31 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 19:15 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 13:54 | −0.10 | +0.18 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:31 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 18:34 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 21:34 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 25:15 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 15:08 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 11:33 | −0.34 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 15:37 | −0.48 | −0.23 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:09 | −0.50 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 12:52 | −0.64 | +0.12 | −0.76 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 61:20 | −0.45 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:58 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.23 | +1.30 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Roman Josi D | 24:35 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.10 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 13:39 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.05 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Ellis D | 25:04 | 3 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dan Hamhuis D | 13:42 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 18:29 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Turris C | 18:53 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 16:47 | −0.06 | +0.19 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:56 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.33 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 12:47 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 16:11 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:40 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jarred Tinordi D | 15:26 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 12:02 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 13:19 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 12:47 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 15:10 | −0.43 | −0.24 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:06 | −0.52 | −0.18 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:49 | +0.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.