STL beat NYI 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 2.2, STL 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Colton Parayko scored at 3:23 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:20 | NYI | Jean-Gabriel PageauPP from Mathew Barzal, Devon Toews | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:34 | NYI | Jordan Eberle from Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P1 19:05 |  STL | Brayden Schenn from Ryan O'Reilly, Jaden Schwartz | 2–1 | 20% → 35% |
| P3 18:16 | STL | Vince Dunn unassisted | 2–2 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 3:23 | STL | Colton Parayko unassisted | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:54 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.16 | +0.29 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 21:38 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 20:56 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 23:34 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 23:57 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 19:08 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 18:35 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 24:12 | +0.04 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 9:41 | +0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Dal Colle L | 16:46 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 6:50 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Boychuk D | 14:22 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 15:07 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 6:46 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Otto Koivula L | 7:32 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 24:49 | −0.23 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 19:01 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 16:21 | −0.39 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 63:23 | −0.41 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Parayko D | 24:55 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.26 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:28 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.07 | +0.30 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:26 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.35 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 17:15 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.10 | +0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 18:37 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:39 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 17:23 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 18:00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:49 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 20:35 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 17:09 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 16:42 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 24:05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Steen L | 13:01 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 13:08 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 4:07 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 10:20 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 18:40 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 63:23 | +0.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.