ANA beat EDM 4–3 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sonny Milano scored on the power play at 2:05 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Mike Smith allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:46 |  ANA | Sonny Milano unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:12 | ANA | Nicolas Deslauriers from Jacob Larsson, Michael Del Zotto | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 9:09 | EDM | Tyler Ennis from Andreas Athanasiou, Connor McDavid | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P3 4:23 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 12:33 | ANA | Adam Henrique from Danton Heinen, Josh Manson | 2–3 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 15:25 | EDM | Andreas Athanasiou from Tyler Ennis, Connor McDavid | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
| OT 2:05 | ANA | Sonny MilanoPP from Adam Henrique, Ryan Getzlaf | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 16:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.36 | +0.65 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Ennis R | 16:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.34 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:57 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.30 | +0.30 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 23:49 | 3 | +0.51 | +0.68 | −0.39 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Ethan Bear D | 26:51 | +0.50 | +0.60 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 14:07 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:27 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 13:15 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 16:57 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Green D | 12:48 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 7:12 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gaetan Haas C | 8:38 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrick Russell R | 7:40 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:12 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 21:42 | −0.12 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 12:35 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 18:18 | −0.37 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 15:39 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 62:05 | −2.05 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Milano L | 14:42 | 2 | +1.98 | +0.15 | +1.47 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:45 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.01 | +0.89 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 18:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.31 | +0.75 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Carter Rowney C | 13:18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 23:11 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Djoos D | 16:19 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 11:14 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Agozzino L | 10:24 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Jones L | 14:29 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 17:55 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Sam Steel C | 15:50 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 22:03 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 21:23 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 13:21 | −0.36 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 19:48 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.10 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:34 | −0.46 | −0.29 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 26:02 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.60 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 18:00 | 1 | −0.95 | −0.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 62:05 | +0.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.