VGK beat ANA 6–5 in overtime. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Shea Theodore scored at 3:50 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 100%. John Gibson allowed 3.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:49 | VGK | Patrick Brown from Gage Quinney, Ryan Reaves | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 19:58 | ANA | Devin Shore from Brendan Guhle | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 10:03 | ANA | Nick Ritchie from Adam Henrique | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 15:51 | VGK | Alec Martinez from Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 19:03 | VGK | William Karlsson from Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty | 3–2 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 0:21 | ANA | Nick Ritchie from Troy Terry, Adam Henrique | 3–3 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 6:28 | VGK | William Karlsson from Chandler Stephenson, Alec Martinez | 4–3 | 49% → 77% |
| P3 11:05 | VGK | William Karlsson from Mark Stone, Reilly Smith | 5–3 | 81% → 96% |
| P3 17:03 | ANA | Adam HenriquePP from Nick Ritchie, Rickard Rakell | 5–4 | 1% → 9% |
| P3 18:45 | ANA | Adam HenriquePP from Michael Del Zotto, Nick Ritchie | 5–5 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 3:50 | VGK | Shea Theodore from Mark Stone | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Karlsson C | 19:35 | 3 | +2.80 | +0.13 | +2.49 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 23:25 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.26 | +0.60 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Brown C | 10:04 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.17 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 18:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.11 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Nick Holden D | 23:25 | +0.17 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 15:23 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 14:11 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| William Carrier L | 12:15 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 14:32 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.15 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Gage Quinney C | 8:23 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 22:25 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 18:44 | 4 | −0.10 | +0.16 | −0.15 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 19:50 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 21:09 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 17:44 | 2 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:40 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.20 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:00 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 19:38 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Subban G | 63:47 | −1.84 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Ritchie L | 14:13 | 2 | 2 | +1.26 | +0.06 | +1.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Henrique C | 18:16 | 2 | 2 | +1.17 | +0.11 | +1.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Devin Shore C | 11:59 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.04 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 26:55 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 16:58 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 25:49 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 20:37 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 18:58 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Korbinian Holzer D | 15:44 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 12:20 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 15:45 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jacob Larsson D | 16:05 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 12:03 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 18:16 | −0.22 | −0.26 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Brendan Guhle D | 17:23 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:04 | −0.40 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 21:18 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.23 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 17:17 | −0.64 | +0.03 | −0.47 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 63:00 | −3.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.