NJD beat WSH 3–2. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Damon Severson scored on the power play at 18:01 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 52% to 94%. Mackenzie Blackwood saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:55 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Damon Severson | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 12:12 | NJD | Wayne SimmondsPP from Jesper Bratt, Nikita Gusev | 0–2 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 14:44 | WSH | Tom WilsonPP from John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom | 1–2 | 11% → 25% |
| P3 4:50 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nick Jensen | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 18:01 | NJD | Damon SeversonPP from Nikita Gusev, Kyle Palmieri | 2–3 | 52% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin L | 23:46 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.34 | +0.50 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 16:53 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.20 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 24:00 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.34 | −0.40 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 23:30 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.35 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 17:09 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Leipsic L | 10:55 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michal Kempny D | 17:13 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 13:51 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 16:15 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 10:16 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 8:48 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 15:04 | −0.18 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 13:50 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:40 | −0.28 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 12:32 | −0.39 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 18:05 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.06 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 21:04 | −0.46 | +0.37 | −1.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 57:25 | −0.29 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Severson D | 26:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.29 | +0.72 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jesper Bratt L | 12:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.13 | +0.55 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 11:35 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.07 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 15:55 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.17 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.35 | +0.01 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 15:42 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 20:02 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 22:10 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 19:11 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Gusev L | 13:26 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.17 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 17:25 | −0.16 | +0.16 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 14:38 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Joey Anderson R | 16:12 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| John Hayden C | 9:22 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Mirco Mueller D | 23:09 | −0.34 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Carrick D | 11:55 | −0.34 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton White D | 12:00 | −0.36 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Merkley R | 11:09 | −0.41 | −0.04 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 15:02 | −0.83 | −0.18 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.35 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:00 | +1.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.